High Commodity Prices Likely to Remain High
Saturday, June 14th, 2008Commodity prices are volatile because they respond to many unpredictable factors: weather, labor strikes, inflation, foreign exchange rates, government monetary policies, and well intentioned but flawed government programs, like the US ethanol production program.
In an individual commodity trading account, because your position in futures and options is leveraged, even a small move against your position may result in a large loss, including the loss of your entire initial margin payment and liability for additional losses. Commodity prices are a double-edged sword for the world economy. High commodity prices are a negative for commodity importers, but a positive for commodity exporters. Commodity prices are currently at or near all time highs. Producers are retiring debt and replacing worn-out equipment but consumers are starting to scream as food shortages and prices beyond what many consumers can pay are developing in many countries.
Commodity prices are more volatile than exchange rates and interest rates. Hence, a priori, commodity price risk represents a more important source of risk to corporations. Commodity prices are high because for one thing China has grown to the point where it is a significant portion of world growth and demand for food and products made from commodities has soared along with the high rate of economic growth. Let’s say (as far as commodities are concerned) that China now has roughly the same amount of consumption as the US but that demand is growing more rapidly.
If you're new here, you may want to subscribe to my RSS feed. Thanks for visiting!